Kelso, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

729
FXUS65 KVEF 221108
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
407 AM PDT Thu May 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry conditions are expected through the week
with many desert locations creeping towards triple digits.
Afternoon breezes will increase today and Friday as a weather
system moves through to our north but dry conditions will
continue. Warm and dry weather will persist into early next week.
&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Wednesday.

Heat will be the main concern over the next few days as an upper
level ridge builds over the region. Anomalously high heights will
remain in place today while the pressure gradient increases due to
an shortwave moving through the Pacific Northwest. This will allow
for breezy southwest winds to develop- and while winds will remain
un-impactful, they will help mix into warmer air above the surface
and thus today should be the warmest day of the week. There`s about a
50% chance for Las Vegas to hit 100F for the first time this year.
If it doesn`t hit today, it likely wont happen this week as the
chance for 100F drops to 10% on Friday and emails below 30% through
the rest of the forecast period.

The upper level ridge will break down on Friday and will be replaced
with a shortwave by Saturday. In response, temperatures will cool
and winds will increase. This shortwave is not robust and thus a
dramatic change with significant weather impacts is not expected.
While temperatures will cool from their peak today, high
temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal through Sunday.
Precipitation is not expected with this system as the airmass
remains very dry. The main concern will be winds Friday as breezy
south to southwest winds develop ahead of the incoming trough. Most
likely, wind will remain below impactful levels with widespread
gusts 25-35 MPH expected. Wind gusts in the Western Mojave Desert
may briefly touch 40 MPH and isolated wind impacts are possible,
however the low level jet only strengthens for a few hours so the
window for stronger gusts to 40 MPH is short and would limit wind
impacts. By Saturday, the trough moves through and the pressure
gradient decreases- thus winds will decrease as well.

Model consensus decreases next week and confidence in forecast
details is lower than through this weekend. Cluster analysis
supports ridging building back into the region, and dry weather is
likely. However, how strong the ridge builds and where it sets up is
uncertain, which will influence temperature and wind forecasts.
Temperatures will should remain at or above normal the first half of
next week as even the 10th percentile "low end" high temperature
forecasts are not below normal. But overall temperature spread is
high. Winds may be breezy at times but probabilities for impactful
wind gusts over 40 MPH next week is low.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...
Expect southwesterly winds and quiet weather through mid morning.
Winds speeds during this time are expected to be around 8 to 12
knots. Between mid morning and early afternoon, winds are likely to
be southerly around 10 to 12 knots, but could briefly shift to the
southeast at times. After 20z, southwest winds will increase with
occasional gusts to around 22 knots, which will persist into the
early evening hours before dissipating. VFR conditions through the
period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...The main concern for
this period will be gusty southwesterly winds Thursday. Overnight
and early this morning, expect quiet weather. Winds will increase
this afternoon with gusts of 15 to 30 knots common across the
region. Gusts should decrease in most areas around sunset, but winds
will be a little stronger than Wednesday night. VFR conditions
through the period.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nickerson
AVIATION...Gorelow

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